Hi People!
Politico is just reporting as well as the OhioDailyBlog and the Buckeye State Blog that Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D) WILL RUN for United States Senate in 2010.
I had expected this as she attended many, many DSCC Events during the Inauguration of President Obama. She was also endorsed by EMILY'S List last week which made is clearer that she would run.

She'll make an Official Announcement this afternoon.

Hopefully the OH Dems can find a viable Replacement for her.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/ 0209/Brunners_in_.html?showall

Man, damn
I don't know what to say. Death blow for Florida Democrats. Chief Financial Officer Adelaine "Alex" Sink (D) has decided NOT to seek the Senate Seat been vacated by retireing Sen. Mel Martinez (R).

This is a HUGE blow.

Read here:
http://miamiherald.typepad.com/...
http://blogs.tampabay.com/...

Methinks Gelber will now get in and Rep. Allen Boyd (D) will give the Race a serious look now.

I change my rating from Toss-Up to Leans Republican.

Hello all!
Multiple GOP Sources in the Buckeye State are confirmed that Fmr. OH Rep , Trade Representative & OMB Director Rob Portman (R) is IN to replace retireing Ohio Senior Senator George Voinovich.
Portman has scheduled an formal Announcement after Voinovich has delivered his Retirement Speech.
Multiple Ohio News Stations are expected to carry the Event LIVE.

Just a short brief Diary:
Politico just a couple of minutes ago confirms Ohio Senator George Voinovich (R) to announce Retirement Monday.
Read here:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/010 9/17324.html

Certainly good News:
The apprupt Retirement Announcement of FL Senator Mel Martinez (R) not to seek Reelection has promted FL CFO Alexis Sink (D) reconsidering her Decision not to run for Senate.

Please read her:
http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2008/12/s ink-will-reass.html

Just a brief Diary because it's so much good News for the Obama Campaign.

NBC/Mason-Dixon Polls

New Hampshire
Obama 50 %
McCain 39 %

Montana
McCain 48 %
Obama 44 %

North Carolina
Obama 47 %
McCain 47 %

Indiana WSTB/Research 2000/South Bend Tribune
Obama 48 %
McCain 47 %

SurveyUSA Ohio
Obama 49 %
McCain 45 %

Hello all!
I haven't written a Diary here for a while so thought I'm writing this.
It's so great to see Democratic Community coming together after such a tough Primary.
My thought is that the Commonwealth of Virginia could send us into bead on Election Night very early if the new SUSA Virginia Poll is to be believed.
New Survey USA Virginia Poll/Oct. 4-5/666 Likely Voters/MOE 3.9
Presidential Race
Barack Obama (D) 53 %
John McCain (R) 43 %
Others 3 %
Undecided 1 %

Key Facts:
As McCain's Lead Among White Virginians Shrinks, So Too His Chances of Holding The State's 13 Electoral Votes: 29 days until votes are counted in Virginia, Democrat Barack Obama is ahead 53% to 43%, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, WJLA-TV in Washington DC, WTVR-TV in Richmond, and WJHL-TV in the Tri-Cities. In 4 tracking polls conducted since the Republican Convention, McCain has gone from up by 2 to down by 10.

There is movement among men, where immediately after the GOP convention, McCain led by 10, and where today Obama leads by 11.
There is movement among whites, where McCain's once 22-point lead is today reduced to single digits.
There is movement among the well-to-do, where today for the first time Obama leads.
There is movement among pro-choice voters, where Obama's lead has doubled since August.

McCain no longer leads in any region of the state. In Northeastern VA, which includes the DC suburbs, Obama leads by 24 points. In Central Virginia, home of the Confederate White House, the Museum of the Confederacy and Appomattox, Obama today leads by 8. In Southeastern Virginia, Obama leads by 11. In the Shenandoah, where John McCain led by 24 points one month ago, Obama and McCain today tie.
Link: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=00f2d8fb-6a3b-425d-9f27-21df79 6e8fe5&c=77

Senate Race
Mark Warner (D) 61 %
Jim Gilmore (R) 31 %
Gail Parker (G) 3 %
Bill Redpath (L) 3 %
Undecided 3 %

Key Facts:
Democratic Tide Almost Certain to Sweep Mark Warner into US Senate Seat Vacated by Republican John Warner: In an election for United States Senator from Virginia today, 10/06/08, Democrat Mark Warner defeats Republican Jim Gilmore 2:1, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WDBJ-TV Roanoke, WJLA-TV Washington DC, WTVR-TV Richmond, and WJHL-TV Tri-Cities. Independent Green candidate Gail Parker gets 3% of the vote; Libertarian Bill Redpath gets 3%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one week ago, the Democrat Warner is up 4 points, the Republican Gilmore is down 3.

Mark Warner, who served as Virginia's governor from 2002-2006, continues to take the majority of voters in all demographic groups and all regions of the state. 28% of Republicans cross over to vote for Democrat Warner. Jim Gilmore, who served as Virginia's governor from 1998 to 2002, gets 66% of Republican votes, 59% of conservative voters, and 54% of those who describe themselves as pro-life; Gilmore takes no more than 36% of any other group. John Warner, the incumbent Republican United States Senator, was first elected in 1978 and is currently serving his fifth term in office; he is not seeking a sixth term. John Warner and Mark Warner, who are not related, ran against one another in 1996; John Warner won then by 5 points and was re-elected to his fourth term. If Mark Warner is elected, both of Virginia's U.S. Senate seats will be held by Democrats; Jim Webb defeated Republican George Allen, who was running for his second term, in 2006.
Link: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=e7dc1b60-536e-444e-82bd-646342 82de72&c=77

Filtering:
SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Virginia adults 10/04/08 and 10/05/08. Of the adults, 832 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 666 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election.

It's been a while since I posted my last Diary here. Mason-Dixon has finally come off their gloves and have started polling Battleground States.
New NBC News/Mason-Dixon Pennsylvania Poll/Sept. 16-18/625 Likely Voters/MOE 4.0
Presidential Race
Barack Obama (D) 46 %
John McCain (R) 44 %
Undecided 10 %
Unfortunately NBC is not giving us any Internals. Among the Economy Obama leads McCain 47-42.
Just a Note why I put so much stock in the M/D Polls:
Here are the M/D Polls for the 2004 Battlegrounds and the Actual Results:
Florida
Latest M/D Poll: Bush 49 % , Kerry 45
Actual Vote: Bush 52 , Kerry 47
Ohio
Latest M/D Poll: Bush 48 % , Kerry 46 %
Actual Vote: Bush 51 , Kerry 48
Pennsylvania
Latest M/D Poll: Kerry 48 % , Bush 46 %
Actual Vote: Kerry 52 , Bush 47
They were also right in Wisconsin (Kerry), Iowa (Bush), Michigan (Kerry), Missouri (Bush), New Mexico (Bush), Nevada (Bush), Colorado (Bush), New Hampshire (Kerry), Oregon (Kerry)
See it here:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs _kerry_sbys.htm
Also the lone State they didn't get right was Minnesota.

The News are getting even better in Virginia:
New Survey USA Virginia Poll/Sept. 19-21/716 Likely Voters/MOE 3.7
Presidential Race
Barack Obama (D) 51 %
John McCain (R) 45 %
Others 2 %
Undecided 2 %

Key Facts:
Women, Suburban DC Voters Help Obama Find Breathing Room on Virginia Battlefield: In an election for President of the United States in Virginia today, 09/22/08, 6 weeks from Election Day, Democrat Barack Obama edges Republican John McCain, 51% to 45%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, WJLA-TV in Washington DC, WTVR-TV in Richmond, and WJHL-TV in the Tri-Cities. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one week ago, Obama is up 1 point; McCain is down 1 point; compared to a SurveyUSA poll two weeks ago, Obama is up 4, McCain is down 4.

Since 1952, Virginia has voted Republican 13 times and Democrat only once, in 1964. Today: In the Washington DC suburbs, Obama now polls at 59% and leads McCain by 21 points. Obama leads by 10 in Southeast VA and by 4 in Central VA. McCain's regional advantage is confined to the Shenandoah, where he is 14 points atop Obama. Among women, Obama led by 6 points before Sarah Palin was named to the GOP ticket, now leads by 16. McCain continues to lead among voters older than McCain. Obama continues to lead among voters younger than Obama. But among voters in between, McCain's once 10-point advantage is now a 3-point deficit. Among college educated voters, Obama has gained 6 points and McCain has lost 5 points in the past 2 weeks. Among lower-income voters, Obama's advantage has increased by 17 points in the past 6 weeks.

McCain holds 87% of the GOP base. Obama holds 91% of the Democrat base. Independents split. McCain holds 83% of Conservatives. Obama holds 86% of Liberals. But: Obama leads by 28 points among Moderates, and on that Virginia battlefield, the contest may be decided.

Senate Race
Mark Warner (D) 57 %
Jim Gilmore (R) 34 %
Gail Parker (G) 3 %
Bill Redpath (L) 3 %
Undecided 3 %

Key Facts:
Steady As She Goes in VA Senate Race: In an election for US Senate in Virginia today, 09/22/08, Democrat Mark Warner defeats Republican Jim Gilmore 57% to 34%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WDBJ-TV Roanoke, WJLA-TV Washington DC, WTVR-TV Richmond, and WJHL-TV Tri-Cities. Independent Green candidate Gail Parker gets 3% of the vote; Libertarian Bill Redpath gets 3%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one week ago, both Warner and Gilmore are unchanged.

Mark Warner, who served as Virginia's governor from 2002-2006, continues to take the majority of voters in all demographic groups and all regions of the state. 1 in 5 Republicans cross over to vote for Democrat Warner. Jim Gilmore, who served as Virginia's governor from 1998 to 2002, gets 73% of Republican votes, 67% of conservative voters, and 56% of those who describe themselves as pro-life; Gilmore takes no more than 41% of any other group.

John Warner, the incumbent Republican United States Senator, was first elected in 1978 and is currently serving his fifth term in office; he is not seeking a sixth term. John Warner and Mark Warner, who are not related, ran against one another in 1996; John Warner won then by 5 points and was re-elected to his fourth term. If Mark Warner is elected, both of Virginia's U.S. Senate seats will be held by Democrats; Jim Webb defeated Republican George Allen, who was running for his second term, in 2006.

Filtering:
SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Virginia adults 09/19/08 through 09/21/08. Of the adults, 818 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 716 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election.

Thirdly a Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll shows Obama leading McCain 47-42.

Best Regards

Daniel